Free Pick: Chargers/Chiefs Under 53
Two of the best teams in the NFL will be facing off this Thursday night and it figures to be a good game! Kansas City currently sits #1 in the AFC West with an 11-2 record while Los Angeles is #2 owning a 10-3 record. Vegas is expecting some points to be scored in this game as they opened it with a 56.5 point total. That makes a bit of sense considering the Chiefs have an offense ranked #1 in Yards-Per-Game this season with the Chargers not very far behind (ranked 6th in YPG). Don’t forget to factor in an awful Chiefs defense that’s currently ranked 30th in the league. With all of that in mind, it would seem to just scream over, wouldn’t you think? That’s what the general public is thinking anyways! Right now 80% of tickets are on the OVER in this game. However, the line has actually moved from 56.5 where it opened down to it’s current 53. That says the big bets have actually been coming in on the UNDER for Thursday night. When looking more into the data I would have to agree and say the under seems like the better play. Here’s why I’m leaning that way.
First of all, it’s Thursday night and both of these teams just played on Sunday – so it’ll be a short week for each of them. Also, let’s give a little credit to the defense Los Angeles has been playing this year. They rank 8th in the league overall and enter this game ranked 7th in the league against the pass. In fact, the Chargers defense has held teams to 23 points or less in eight of their last nine games. The Chiefs and Chargers are also 3-6 Over/Under their previous nine matchups (1-3 Over/Under their previous four inside of Arrow Head Stadium). I have actually found that Kansas City puts up several more Unders at home as opposed to the road. They’re 3-9 Over/Under their last twelve home games compared to 8-1 Over/Under their previous nine on the road. As for Los Angeles, they’ve been heavy towards the Under both home and away in recent games. They’ll enter Thursday night 1-2 Over/Under their previous three on the road and 1-3 Over/Under their previous four at home.
One final thing I’ve noticed this season is that Thursday night games were pretty high scoring throughout the first half of the season – In the first 8 weeks we saw 5 games total more than 53 points. However, since then we’ve seen just 1 game total more than 53 points during the last five. I predict it will continue this week and we’ll see this game finish at or Under 53 as well.