Free Pick: Houston Rockets -6
Portland will be coming into the game as the underdog and the public seems to like it. They opened at +6 and as of right now 63% of tickets out there are on the Trail Blazers as an underdog. However, there is a bit of reverse line movement happening with this game. With so many tickets on Portland you’d expect that line to move down to something like +5.5. Instead, the opposite has happened and we’ve actually seen the line move to -6.5 since it opened. Smart money appears to be on Houston in this game and right now that’s where exactly 50% of the money is.
So, why would public bets be coming in on the Trail Blazers? One guess would be the fact they’re getting plus points on a team that sits 7th in the Western Conference (15-11 record) facing off against the Rockets who are 14th and own a below .500 record (11-14). Still, Houston is 4-2 against the spread their previous six home games which isn’t bad when compared to the Trail Blazers who are 1-7 against the spread their previous eight on the road. As a matter of fact, Portland has now lost against the spread their last five road games in a row. If that wasn’t bad enough, the Trail Blazers really tend to struggle when facing Western Conference opponents on the road. They’re just 2-11 against the spread their previous thirteen road games versus Western Conference teams. Fewer tickets are on the Rockets, yet just as much cash. That tells me smart money is on Houston so I bought the half point and will be taking them at -6 tonight.